Commodity currencies rise amid energy crisis
06 / 04 / 22
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AUD/USD
The rise in prices for raw materials and the worsening energy crisis contribute to the growth of commodity currencies. Thus, the pair aud/usd finally managed to get out of the narrow 100-pp corridor between 0.7520 and 0.7450 and develop an upward movement, strengthening above 0.7600. At the moment, the price continues to rise towards the March 2021 extremes at 0.7800-0.7700. In this area, we can expect a slowdown in the upward momentum and look for opportunities for corrective sales.
The strengthening of the Aussie was made possible not only by the rise in commodity prices, but also by the hawkish tone of the RBA meeting this morning. The regulator left the rate at the same level, but according to analysts' forecasts, it is necessary to prepare for the first increase already in the second quarter of this year.
From the foundation today at 17.00 Moscow time we are waiting for the publication of data on the index of purchasing managers for the US non-manufacturing sector from ISM for March.
GBP/USD
The British currency has been stuck in an unusually narrow range of 1.3170-1.3050 for more than a week. On the daily timeframe, the pair continues to be below the alligator lines, which indicates in favor of a downward movement. If in the coming trading sessions we do not see an impulse growth with subsequent strengthening above 1.3200, we should prepare for the breakdown of the lower fractal at 1.3040 and a test of psychological support at 1.3000. From the foundation tomorrow at 11.30 Moscow time, attention should be paid to the publication of data on the index of business activity in the UK construction sector for March.
EUR/USD
The single European currency started the current five-day trading period with a decrease. Euro sellers managed to break the important support at 1.1000, and at the moment we can expect a test of this level, but already as resistance. The price went below the alligator lines on the daily timeframe, with the priority of selling on the breakdown of the nearest fractals at 1.0890-1.0800.
From the foundation tomorrow morning we are waiting for the publication of data on the volume of industrial orders in Germany (m / m) for February. Several members of the ECB are also scheduled to speak. In particular, Philippe Lane and Fabio Panetta.
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